FROM THE EWI INDEPENDENT

Scanning the Horizon
By Robert Folsom

I never would have predicted that the British government has a department of Foresight. One section of it, the “Horizon Scanning Center,” coordinates efforts to envision the future by providing, “a core of skills in science-based futures projects and unequalled access to leaders in government, business and science.”

The nearest equivalent to a U.S. government foresight effort is the Critical Technologies study by the non-profit Rand Corporation. Congress mandates the study and then, according to a British book, Future in Focus, virtually ignores it. The U.S. government does seem more focused on hindsight, publishing bios and seminar photos from the D.O.E.’s “Corporate Lessons Learned Collection”, the “Society for Effective Lessons Learned,” and numerous other government “Lessons Learned” sites.

Sigma Scan, a division of the U.K.’s Horizon Scan, features a search engine of sociological studies, one of which is, “No Such Thing as Society?: The Rise of Individualism and Weakening of Social Cohesion.”

Many of the report’s expectations are interesting from a socionomic perspective:

A “weakening of the bonds of collective participation and interdependence within affluent western societies”
Decline of social engagements, such as sporting activities
The decline of trade union association and in membership of political parties
More isolated gated communities among a wide variety of social groups
Declining birth rates, as parents spend less time with children due to the need for two incomes
Moves toward libertarian economic models reduce the state’s role as the primary provider of social services
Decline in the government's ability to collect revenue from the working population, and a reduction of certain social services
Greater personal freedom -- reducing state regulation of personal behavior (sexuality, drinking, or drug taking)
Class divides widening as state support for social mobility is reduced, and services provided only for those who can pay for them
With fewer social supports, society may see growing endemic problems with mental health, drug and alcohol abuse and anti-social behavior
The wealthy may choose to ‘opt out’ of mainstream society and active citizenship, by purchasing private healthcare, education, privacy and security
Reduced levels of participation in public life as people reject socially inclusive activities
The early indicators of a move toward more individualism are described as:

A decline in social support for the idea of taxation and redistribution
Increasing support for limited government
Market domination of more areas of society
Refuting the right of government to regulate life and lifestyles
Decline in child birth rate and the use of day care centers
Increased focus on the idea of celebrity: the individual as an icon
Decline in popular participation in campaigns of social and moral concern
There are parallels and differences with expectations derived from the socionomic perspective, but two themes are consistent… the desire to belong to smaller groups, and distrust of government.

These researchers anticipate this outcome by analyzing trends they currently see. This speaks to the size and duration of the societal shifts already underway. It is commendable that some governments are attempting to be pro-active.